Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 2.407515 2.821142 3.280609 3.828304 4.462880 5.174474 6.032480
2025-11-30 1.784211 2.340615 3.026846 3.932963 5.095423 6.533992 8.446637
2025-12-07 1.346865 1.940735 2.739347 3.886212 5.484673 7.626474 10.705973
2025-12-14 1.060261 1.655223 2.516330 3.843811 5.827163 8.666527 13.022324
2025-12-21 0.868472 1.454551 2.359053 3.842052 6.194804 9.759914 15.540429
2025-12-28 0.789777 1.406364 2.412531 4.152495 7.059138 11.682984 19.542388
2026-01-04 0.685633 1.293035 2.337166 4.234429 7.558817 13.089301 22.905630
2026-01-11 0.601037 1.195650 2.268327 4.308658 8.044156 14.518584 26.473468
2026-01-18 0.523773 1.096046 2.176600 4.322370 8.416047 15.788305 29.911364
2026-01-25 0.454149 0.997519 2.069129 4.286097 8.683823 16.895162 33.180047
2026-02-01 0.374094 0.862382 1.867978 4.034621 8.501393 17.143879 34.876845
2026-02-08 0.319279 0.770383 1.738045 3.903943 8.532979 17.791425 37.398246
2026-02-15 0.277203 0.700753 1.647792 3.851108 8.734831 18.834700 40.913998
2026-02-22 0.256537 0.677434 1.655724 4.015206 9.424930 20.964002 46.940298
2026-03-01 0.225615 0.622965 1.583741 3.987399 9.690492 22.241408 51.343135
2026-03-08 0.198607 0.572809 1.513100 3.950622 9.929018 23.488409 55.835795
2026-03-15 0.177314 0.533312 1.461529 3.951079 10.253454 24.963798 61.018257
2026-03-22 0.173629 0.541710 1.532804 4.270757 11.394578 28.439519 71.200533
2026-03-29 0.159572 0.517476 1.514370 4.355207 11.962029 30.640171 78.650775
2026-04-05 0.146697 0.494068 1.494149 4.431558 12.519352 32.883008 86.470039
2026-04-12 0.132998 0.465201 1.453678 4.445677 12.914873 34.774990 93.650460
2026-04-19 0.119227 0.433102 1.398262 4.408426 13.166116 36.333250 100.175584
2026-04-26 0.100756 0.381158 1.274261 4.150080 12.764904 36.156501 102.202241